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Price Prediction

Price Prediction is a token-anchored holder game for tokens that route part of their creator-side trading fees into a prize bucket. Players predict the token’s settlement price for the round, and the closest eligible predictions split the bucket.
Prizes are funded by the token’s configured creator-side fee allocation. Price Prediction does not add an extra fee to trader swaps.

How fees fund prizes

Price Prediction uses the same creator-side allocation budget as staking, Auto Buyback and Burn, and Liquidity Compounding.

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How it works

1

Creator enables it at launch

The creator chooses a forecast.shareBps allocation from 1% to 100% of the creator-side fee share. This allocation is fixed at launch and cannot be increased, reduced, or turned off later.
2

Fees fill the prize bucket

The fee-splitter books that share into forecast_claimable. The bucket is separate from creator payouts, staking rewards, buybacks, and liquidity compounding.
3

A round opens every day

Blank opens one round per UTC calendar day. Players can enter throughout that day, and predictions lock at the next 00:00 UTC boundary.
4

Holders submit predictions

Each player can submit one prediction per round. Entry requires an authenticated Blank account, a username, a verified wallet, and at least 1 token in finalized Solana state when entering.
5

Blank settles winners

The prediction targets the price 24 hours after entries lock. Blank uses the final 4 hours before that target midnight, verifies that every entrant still holds the token in finalized Solana state, ranks predictions by closeness, and pays winners on-chain from the round’s reserved prize.

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Round Schedule

Example phaseTimeWhat happens
Round opensMonday 00:00 UTCMonday’s entry window begins.
Predictions lockTuesday 00:00 UTCMonday’s entries close; Tuesday’s round opens.
Result windowTuesday 20:00–Wednesday 00:00 UTCBlank resolves the target price.
Settlement targetWednesday 00:00 UTCMonday’s predictions are ranked and paid.
In other words, players submit throughout Monday for the price at the end of Tuesday: a full 24 hours after Monday’s entry window closes. Because rounds overlap, the token page can show today’s open round while yesterday’s round is still waiting for its result. A token launched during a UTC day can join the remaining part of that day’s entry window. Its later rounds follow the same midnight-to-midnight schedule.

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Eligibility

  • The token must have Price Prediction enabled with at least a 1% allocation.
  • The player must have a username and a verified wallet.
  • The player must hold at least 1 token when entering.
  • The same wallet must still hold at least 1 token when the round settles after the 24-hour target boundary.
  • Each player gets one prediction per round, and predictions cannot be edited.
If a player loses holder eligibility before settlement, their prediction stays visible but does not win a payout. Blank checks finalized Solana state for both decisions. If holder verification is temporarily unavailable, Blank does not guess from cached balances: entry is rejected with a retryable error, or settlement waits and retries without moving the prize funds.

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Payouts

When a round opens, it reserves the part of the on-chain prize bucket that has not already been promised to another active round. Fees added afterward remain available for the next daily round. The closest eligible predictions win. With three eligible winners, the reserved prize splits:
RankPrize share
160%
230%
310%
If only two eligible winners exist, they split 70% / 30%. If only one eligible winner exists, that winner receives 100%. A daily round still accepts and ranks predictions when its reserved prize is zero. In that case Blank records the result without sending a payout transaction. Settlement uses the median stored 1-minute candle close in the result window when candles exist. Quiet markets still settle: Blank falls back to the latest indexed 1-minute candle or trade before the settlement window ends, then to the stored baseline or current price if needed.
User predictions cannot directly move funds. Winner payments are submitted by Blank through the relayer-gated claim_forecast_fees instruction and can only release the booked prize bucket.

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Public signals

Enabled tokens show Price Prediction on the public token page. The card and predictions modal surface today’s entry round plus paginated history for every open, locked, settled, and voided round. Players can open any round to page through usernames, predictions, eligibility results, winners, payout amounts, and the settlement transaction when available. Fee status also exposes the prize accounting:
  • forecast_share_bps - launch-time creator-side allocation for prizes.
  • total_forecast_earned - lifetime SOL earned by the Price Prediction share.
  • vault_forecast - SOL currently sitting in the prize bucket.
  • pending_forecast - upstream fees estimated to route into the prize bucket.
  • distributed_forecast - SOL already paid to confirmed winners.

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Existing tokens and the daily cutover

Tokens created before the daily schedule keep Price Prediction when they were launched with a Forecast allocation. Their allocation and existing on-chain forecast_claimable balance do not change; that balance funds daily rounds. The cutover does not migrate an unfinished weekly prediction into a daily round. Any weekly round that is still open, locked, or settling is voided along with its active predictions, and players can enter the new daily round instead. Settled weekly history remains unchanged. Tokens launched without a Forecast allocation remain ineligible because that allocation is fixed at launch.

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Developer fields

Use forecast.shareBps in the launch payload to enable Price Prediction at launch:
forecast.shareBps is in basis points: 100 bps = 1%. It shares the same 10,000 bps creator-side allocation budget as staking.shareBps, buybackBurn.shareBps, and liquidityCompounding.shareBps. See Launch Tokens and Fee Status for API details.